Against a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and shifting global market dynamics, last week’s AHK Business Breakfast in Dubai brought together around 70 members, partners, and business leaders for a timely and highly relevant exchange on the current economic outlook across the region.
Opening the morning, Dr. Martin Henkelmann shared key insights from the latest AHK World Business Outlook Survey. The results reflected a business environment that continues to be shaped by geopolitical tensions, disrupted supply chains, rising logistics and insurance costs, as well as increasing volatility in global energy markets.
While uncertainty remains a defining factor for many industries, the survey also highlighted the resilience of German businesses operating in our region. Despite cautious expectations regarding business development and investment sentiment over the next 12 months, confidence in the region as a long-term business location remains stable - a strong signal of continued trust in the region’s economic fundamentals and growth potential.
Interesting regional differences also emerged throughout the survey findings. While supply chain disruptions and rising energy and raw material costs remain among the key concerns across all markets, some countries, including Oman, currently appear less affected by the wider regional developments.
The audience then received a political update from H.E. Sybille Pfaff, who underlined the strength and continuity of the German-UAE partnership. In her remarks, she emphasised that Germany remains a reliable economic and political partner for the UAE, particularly during times of global uncertainty. Recent high-level bilateral visits and ongoing cooperation initiatives continue to reinforce the close relationship and longstanding friendship between both nations.
Adding further economic perspective, Heena Nazir, Director at Germany Trade & Invest, provided an in-depth analysis of the latest macroeconomic developments and their implications for the GCC economies. Her presentation covered regional growth forecasts, the impact of current conflicts on the Gulf’s economic outlook for 2026, developments within the oil and project markets, as well as recent foreign trade figures and export trends.
The discussion then moved from macroeconomics to practical business realities during the panel discussion “From Outlook to Action: How Businesses Are Responding to Regional Uncertainty.” Together with an outstanding panel of industry leaders - Arslan Khan, Director Sales at Hapag-Lloyd Middle East, Dr. Hamid Haqparwar, Managing Director of AGMC, and Helmut von Struve, CEO of Siemens in the Middle East and the UAE - participants explored how companies are navigating market volatility, adapting supply chains, reassessing investment priorities, and identifying new opportunities for growth and innovation despite the challenging environment.
Beyond the insights and data, the morning once again demonstrated the value of open dialogue and strong business networks during uncertain times. We would like to thank all speakers, panelists, members, and partners for contributing to such an engaging and forward-looking discussion.
